Co-Designing Future Scenarios for Aquaculture, Forestry, and Biodiversity
The aquaculture sector has the potential to positively influence biodiversity through sustainable practices and the farming of species like seaweeds, which enhance water quality by filtering nutrients and sequestering carbon. However, the sector also poses environmental risks, such as increased demand for fishmeal and fish oil for feed, chemical use, and pressures on land and coastal ecosystems. Similarly, the forestry sector faces challenges such as overlogging, deforestation, infrastructure expansion, and monoculture plantations which threaten biodiversity hotspots. Strategies like sustainable forest management, reforestation, agroforestry, conservation initiatives, and efforts to combat illegal logging are crucial for minimizing the sector’s environmental impact.
Two expert stakeholder workshops focused on the aquaculture and forestry sectors were conducted online on December 4th and 5th, 2024. Co-organized by CLEVER project partners IIASA, Bonn.realis, and UNEP-WCMC, these events brought together a diverse group of 25 participants representing public, private, and civil society stakeholders.
The goal? To co-design modeled scenarios that illuminate the future impacts of the aquaculture and forestry sectors on the environment and biodiversity.
The process? IIASA colleagues, David Leclere and Fulvio di Fulvio, presented their methodology for creating scenarios using the GLOBIOM model and the preliminary scenario results regarding both sectors. Through an interactive method, participants provided feedback regarding the scenario assumptions, indicators, desired outcomes, and potential policy impacts. They also exchanged insights about future trends, risks, and open questions that we may be looking at in the sector by 2050.
The outcome? Researchers will now return to their drawing board to incorporate the input provided by stakeholders and continue their scenario modeling. Further exchanges and workshops are yet to come.
The CLEVER workshops highlighted the urgency of reimagining how the aquaculture and forestry supply chains interact with the environment. The environmental impacts are not limited to what happens within these sectors, but also depend on how other sectors, such as agriculture, develop and potentially improve their own sustainability practices. We all look forward to the final results of the modeled scenarios. Stay tuned!
Written by Rafaella Ferraz Ziegert from the University of Freiburg/Bonn.realis, Heli Sihvonen and Juan Vargas from UNEP-WCMC, David Leclere and Fulvio di Fulvio from IIASA.