CLEVER’s Pathways From Global Trade to Biodiversity Policy Action

What does it take to make Europe’s global trade truly sustainable for biodiversity? At the Mainstreaming Biodiversity for Policy Making conference in Brussels, CLEVER presented insights from three years of research on how EU trade and consumption affect ecosystems worldwide. Our work focuses on three main areas: the Brazilian soy value chain, timber from Cameroon, Brazil, and Gabon, and aquaculture in Vietnam. These commodities are expanding into ecologically sensitive regions, driving deforestation, threatening biodiversity, and impacting local communities.

As the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) begins to take effect, CLEVER engaged with policymakers, civil society, and scientists to share evidence and tools—such as biodiversity indicators, trade analysis, and policy evaluation—that can help identify leverage points for reducing Europe’s biodiversity footprint.

For CLEVER, the event marked a milestone in a longer journey of collaboration, innovation, and systems thinking. As part of the Horizon Europe Cluster on Transformative Change for Biodiversity, our work goes beyond understanding impacts to shaping solutions toward more sustainable and equitable trade.

Measuring and quantifying biodiversity impacts

To design effective policies, we first need clear evidence of how trade affects nature. CLEVER tackled this challenge by developing tools that make biodiversity impacts visible and measurable. Partners from UFMG shared progress on biodiversity loss and endemism projections in Brazil, taking into account uncertainties such as climate change and mitigation policies. This forward-looking approach helps anticipate future risks, making it possible to design policies that are both preventive and adaptive.

Another highlight was an innovative spatially explicit framework, developed by our partners at UPV and BC3, which pinpoints the biodiversity and environmental impacts of Brazilian soybean exports with remarkable precision. This tool not only identifies the municipalities where soybean production is most harmful but also reveals which importing countries bear the greatest responsibility for species decline. Such insights are crucial for policymakers, enabling them to target the most impactful points in the supply chain.

By making these connections clear, CLEVER provides the scientific foundation for policies that can truly reduce Europe’s global biodiversity footprint.

Leverage points and governance implications

The EUDR formed a pertinent case in the different talks. A clear message that came through the presentations was that leverage points for the governance of commodity supply chains exist and must be tackled in multiple areas. This includes ensuring coherence of policies related to the production and trade of forest and agricultural commodities between supply-and demand-side countries. Also, transnational regulations like the EUDR should build on international cooperation in order to maximize its impacts and avoid outcomes that see companies merely seeking technical compliance and reshuffling their supply chains instead of adopting measures that truly tackle deforestation.

Building on these insights, CLEVER released a research output in August 2025 summarizing policy recommendations through the Innovation Action Pool. This initiative identifies governance innovations that can be scaled up to create sustainable supply chains that protect biodiversity while ensuring fair production practices. The report targets state actors and business associations in both producing and consuming countries. Based on stakeholder input, the Innovation Action Pool focuses on adapting and scaling proven governance models rather than introducing entirely new instruments, prioritizing inclusiveness and context-specific solutions that respond to real stakeholder needs.

Reducing EU footprints in the world

The real challenge is turning this knowledge into practical, fair, and effective action. During the panel discussion at the conference, experts from policy, science, and civil society highlighted solutions that are already showing promise: regenerative agriculture, traceability systems, payments for ecosystem services, and innovative financing tools for smallholders. These align with CLEVER’s emphasis on systemic change, but achieving lasting progress requires more than isolated interventions. Strong policy coherence, cross-sector collaboration, and political commitment are essential to move from insights to meaningful, system-level implementation.

Engaging People, Amplifying Impact

To maximise outreach and impact, CLEVER placed strong emphasis on stakeholder engagement and communication throughout the project. Online and in-person workshops and interviews with stakeholders from Europe, Brazil, Cameroon and Gabon brought together local actors across sectors, ensuring that the voices of those most affected by biodiversity loss were reflected in our work. Stakeholder input gathered through these activities directly shaped the content, design, and priorities of the project outputs, such as the Innovation Action Pool, by grounding it in the lived realities, sectoral knowledge, and practical constraints described by those working in the commodity supply chains. 

Communication was also key to impact, with researchers receiving training that supported their active involvement in producing outputs like the project video and “Four key narratives on global trade, forests, and policy” that made our work more accessible.

Amid data and policies, storytelling emerged during the event as a vital tool for driving change. By connecting emotionally to biodiversity, stories amplify local voices and inspire action. Combined with CLEVER’s research, they will inform a joint policy brief with concrete recommendations for EU and international decision-makers. Moving forward, we remain committed to advancing biodiversity-sensitive trade and governance as the foundation for a just and sustainable global economy.

CLEVER’s achievements and outputs reflect the combined efforts of its full consortium, including the University of Bonn, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, University of Freiburg, European Forest Institute, Universitat Politècnica de València, IIASA, and UNEP-WCMC. Their expertise and collaboration made this work possible.

Photos by Rosa Castañeda.

Losing Forests by the Minute: New Laws in Cameroon and the EU’s Global Push

Tick-tock. With every minute that passes, roughly ten football (soccer) fields of irreplaceable tropical primary forest vanish from our planet. Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics have serious local and global impacts, like undermining livelihoods of local communities and peoples, harming biodiversity, and aggravating climate change impacts. The relentless forest loss is particularly critical in regions like Africa’s Congo Basin, which is the second-largest continuous tropical rainforest in the world and a biodiversity hotspot. In hopes of addressing these issues, policy makers have taken different initiatives. Cameroon – a country in the Congo Basin – adopted a revised Forestry Law in 2024, replacing its previous Forestry Law that stemmed from 1994 and appeared long outdated. The revised law regulates and aims to achieve the sustainable use and management of Cameroon’s forest resources, responding to today’s challenges like the climate change. The European Union (EU) has also taken initiative with its Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR). The EUDR aims to minimize the EU’s contribution to deforestation and forest degradation worldwide and thereby reduces global forest loss. This rests on the notion that the EU market imports and consumes forest and agricultural products that fuel forest loss elsewhere. The EUDR focuses on seven such commodities, namely: cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, and wood.

These two initiatives share similar end goals but vary in their approach and scope. Cameroon’s revised Forestry Law is focused on creating clear rules of play in the country’s forest sector, which covers participatory management of forest and wildlife resources, sustainable forest management, forest protection and conservation, and community rights, among other things. The law defines the State’s role of monitoring and enforcement and sets penalties in cases of non-compliance. For Cameroon, the EUDR means EU companies must verify that the seven key commodities imported from Cameroon are legal and haven’t caused deforestation or forest degradation since 2020. To this end, companies in the EU must seek collaboration with their overseas suppliers in ensuring that EUDR provisions are met. For goods to be exported to the EU, companies in Cameroon must document and make available information to their EU buyers about the legality and deforestation-free status of their products. These measures include aspects like providing geolocation information about where commodities were grown and harvested.

Tree trunks loaded onto logging truck in the rain forest of Gabon, Central Africa. Photo by Fabian / Adobe Stock.

Different initiatives like the new Forestry Law and the EUDR can complement and support each other. Cameroon’s revised Forestry Law can help companies with EUDR compliance by seeking to strengthen the monitoring of forestry operations and punishing offenses more severely. The EUDR puts emphasis on legal compliance in countries of origin, like Cameroon, which can strengthen efforts to monitor and ensure compliance with forest and other laws in place. It can also help enhance traceability and transparency of supply chains, because it requires geolocation information of the commodities that are harvested and exported to the EU market – this, in turn, can support the goals of Cameroon’s new Forestry Law.

However, the initiatives also face challenges. For instance, the Forestry Law’s definitions of legal concepts may not align with international standards. Uncertainty also looms over the law’s implementation and enforcement, which has been a pain point with the previous edition of the law due to lacking resources and capacities of the forestry administration, for instance. This casts doubts over its potential effectiveness. The EUDR will also face multiple challenges in its implementation, like ensuring that its provisions are effectively enforced in the EU. The EUDR could also unequally affect producers in Cameroon, because smaller producers may struggle to meet the regulation’s strict requirements. It could also lead producers to divert their exports to other countries, such as China and Vietnam, where sustainability and legality standards are less strict than in the EU. Hence, while the EUDR’s effectiveness remains to be seen, it is already facing serious question marks.

Cameroon is not alone. Other countries in the region, like Gabon, are grappling with the EUDR’s implications while simultaneously devising their own domestic strategies to deal with deforestation. Ultimately, the story is repeated across countries worldwide, because the international trade by the EU means the EUDR has a global reach and each country will have its own interests, preferences, and proposed solutions to forest loss. 

That is why it is crucial to seek collaboration among countries, underlining the shared responsibility in tackling deforestation. This is increasingly important in the context of today’s trade policy environment with its tangible tensions, where unilateral measures tend to carry unintended consequences. Hence, collaboration in implementation of regulations is especially essential for the EUDR, because its influence extends across the borders of a single country. Also, regulations like the revised Forestry Law remain the backbone in a domestic context, so their implementation and enforcement should be supported by partner countries. It is for the benefit of forests and communities that different regulations should ideally support each other: by creating a framework that is greater than the sum of its parts.

Simple wooden dugout canoe on Barombi Mbo crater lake of Cameroon, Africa. Photo by Fabian / Adobe Stock.

Authors: Mathias Cramm (European Forest Institute) and Abubakar Ali Shidiki (University of Dschang)

Feature image by MATTHEW / Adobe Stock.

Mainstreaming Biodiversity in Policymaking: A Collective Call for Transformative Change

On June 4–5, 2025, over 150 participants gathered in Brussels and online for a two-day event hosted by 11 projects funded under the Horizon Europe Cluster on Transformative Change for Biodiversity.

CLEVER, BioValue, RAINFOREST, BAMBOO, BEDROCK, BioAgora, BIONEXT, BIOTraCes and TRANSPATH, PLANET4B and DAISY joined forces to gather and offer insights from each project. The event created a shared space to reflect on how biodiversity can be more effectively integrated into public policymaking, spatial planning, and socio-economic systems.

Rather than presenting isolated results, the projects explored the deeper shifts needed to address the biodiversity crisis. Panelists were invited to share their insights, to connect science-related results with policy representations at the institutional level. Leading researchers from projects, Maria Rosário Partidario from IST, coordinator of BioValue, and Jan Börner from University of Bonn, coordinator of CLEVER, presented their findings and shared their knowledge, while policymakers and representatives from the European Commission emphasized the central role of biodiversity in the economy, environment, and society. Invitees from the Directorates-General from the European Commission were present, among these, Humberto Rosa (DG ENV), Gilles Doignon (DG R&I) and Anne Teller (Formerly DG ENV).

Through interactive workshops and a policy dialogue session, the event opened a much-needed discussion on how to realign institutions, narratives, and planning frameworks around biodiversity as a core societal value.

Each project also contributed with poster presentations highlighting key insights from their published research, practical case studies, and emerging best practices. These visual materials served to share concrete results and stimulate further discussion among participants, offering an accessible way to engage with the diverse projects’ approaches.

Figure 1: Projects presenting their work within the Transformative Change for Biodiversity initiative

Key Themes Emerging from the Event: From Projects to Systemic Change

From case studies to tools and governance models, the event underscored the importance of working beyond project boundaries. The collective message was clear: tackling biodiversity loss requires systemic thinking, where biodiversity is not treated as an add-on, but as a foundational element in shaping futures.

Sessions highlighted that transformative change cannot succeed without addressing questions of justice, equity, and inclusion. Discussions emphasized the need for more participatory and inclusive planning processes that give voice to diverse communities, especially those most affected by environmental degradation.

Humberto Rosa emphasized: “We can only protect and mainstream biodiversity through enlightened human interest—its role for quality of life, food security, wellbeing, resilience and so much more. Biodiversity has long been a second thought in policy, but things are changing. The EU Green Deal brought momentum; now we need to work for more of society to follow.” 

Figure 2: Discussions during a project’s session
Reframing Biodiversity as Opportunity: Integrated Governance for Real Impact

Participants recognized the fragmentation that often hampers biodiversity action. A key takeaway was the necessity for integrated governance—across sectors, scales, and institutions. By aligning environmental goals with economic, social, and territorial agendas, policymakers can unlock synergies and avoid trade-offs.

Throughout the two days, there was a strong call to shift how biodiversity is framed in public discourse. Moving away from narratives of loss and constraint, biodiversity must be communicated as a source of resilience, wellbeing, and long-term prosperity. The language used in policymaking and planning is not neutral—it shapes perception and determines priority.

The two-day gathering marked a significant step toward building a shared understanding of what transformative change for biodiversity entails. It demonstrates the power of collaboration—across projects, disciplines, and sectors—to challenge conventional approaches and to open new avenues for change. As the Horizon Europe projects continue  their scientific research work, the momentum generated in Brussels will continue to fuel collective learning and cross-sector innovation for biodiversity.

All key insights, discussions, and outcomes from the event will be consolidated into a white paper, which will serve as a summary of the collective findings and reflections, culminating on policy recommendations. This document will bring together project results, shared lessons, and forward-looking recommendations, contributing to the broader dialogue on transformative change for biodiversity and informing future policy and practice.

Check more pictues from the event here!

Photo credits: Rosa Castañeda, European Forest Institute

BioValue contacts:

Maria Rosário Partidario – Project Coordinator (IST, University of Lisbon) –

Chiara Bartolacci – Communication Manager (ICONS) –

CLEVER contacts:

Jan Börner – Project Coordinator (University of Bonn Institute for Food and Resource Economics) –

Rosa Castañeda – Communications Officer (European Forest Institute) –

Video: How does our consumption impact forests?

We’re living in a time of growing environmental urgency, and protecting the world’s forests has never been more critical. Rainforests like the Amazon and the Congo Basin play a key role in fighting climate change by storing vast amounts of carbon and supporting incredible biodiversity. Yet these vital ecosystems are under threat—driven by global demand for commodities like soy, beef, and timber. What we consume in Europe often has hidden links to deforestation in distant regions.

Using the case of soy imports from Brazil, this video highlights the complex connections between international regulations, global trade, and biodiversity loss. The CLEVER project provides research to support transformative change by helping shape fairer, more effective policies for forest protection. Watch the video below to better understand the role we all play in protecting our planet’s forests.

Deforestation, forest degradation, and the EU’s response

Ever wondered what goes into making your favorite chocolate bar, shampoo, pet food, bedroom closet or toilet paper? You might be surprised to discover they could hide some secret ingredients: a pinch of deforestation and a dash of forest degradation. Many everyday products are made using imported commodities like cocoa, palm oil, soy, or wood, which cause deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics and subtropics. Overall, one-quarter of tropical forest loss is linked to expanding agriculture for export, and losing a forest means losing the beneficial ecosystem services it provides, such as carbon sequestration, wood production, or water purification.

Consumption of everyday products in Europe can drive significant conversion of natural ecosystems in countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and Côte d’Ivoire. But along with European consumers, many other stakeholders globally affect forest destruction and conservation, like other consumer markets, companies along globalized supply chains, policymakers, public agencies enforcing laws, local populations with different rights and access to land use, and civil society aiming to safeguard the environment. This means that forests face multiple interests and pressures, challenging their governance.

The international community has not agreed on globally valid laws on forests and land use, although many public policies and private regulations from national to international levels try to tackle these urgent issues. In Europe, policymakers seek to reduce the EU’s role in commodity-driven deforestation with the new EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR), which obliges companies in the EU to ensure that their sourcing of seven key agricultural and forest commodities does not directly cause deforestation and forest degradation. However, rather than becoming a global game changer for forests, this could merely result in “cleaning up” of supply chains for the EU market, according to new research by CLEVER, a research project funded by the EU. This means that in a globalized world, even if the EUDR was to be implemented strictly according to the rules, so that all EU supply chains became perfectly deforestation- and land degradation-free, different spillover effects in these markets would still limit what global reductions in deforestation and forest degradation this move could achieve. For instance, commodity markets could be segregated, so that the ‘deforestation-free’ (and more expensive) products go to the EU, while less sustainable (and cheaper) ones go to other markets with no or fewer environmental safeguards. The EUDR could also weaken or delegitimize some well-functioning forest conservation policy mixes among Europe’s major trading partners, such as the Amazon Soy Moratorium in Brazil. Furthermore, the EUDR poses governance challenges due to the way it was developed without seeking agreement of stakeholders outside the EU and sometimes misalignment with national policies in producing countries. This suggests that to tackle deforestation and forest degradation effectively, policy makers must carefully customize actions by taking into account existing policies.

Still, from a positive perspective, the EUDR sets an example that could influence other global consumer countries of agricultural and forest commodities to do the same: strictly regulating the import of products causing forest loss. This development could materialize through international cooperation and policy diffusion across companies and governments alike. Multilateral partnerships and societal pressure, such as trend setting by the civil society, can all support more forest-friendly supply chains.

The EUDR, while well-aligned with broader sustainability goals, introduces both regulatory opportunities and challenges for producer and consumer countries. To avoid unintended consequences, such as conflicting standards, better policy coordination is required. Although the EUDR closes a significant regulatory gap in requesting legal and deforestation- and land degradation-free agricultural and forest commodities, countries also need to come together to find workable solutions – such as supporting the lack of enforcement of existing domestic environmental regulations on the ground. Finally, the EUDR and private sector policies should not divert attention from traditional conservation measures, such as protected areas or payments for environmental services, as they remain key to combating deforestation at its source.

Authors (alphabetical): Laila Berning[1], Mathias Cramm[2], Metodi Sotirov[3], Rafaella Ferraz Ziegert[4], and Sven Wunder[5]

Contributors (alphabetical): Abubakar Shidiki[6], Claudia Azevedo-Ramos[7], Dario Schulz[8], Hassina Uwiringiyimana[9], Herman Zanguim[10], Lucie Temgoua[11], and Martin Tchamba[12]

Reviewers (alphabetical): Scilla Alecci[13], Alok Jha[14], Madeleine Ngeunga[15], Gustavo Magalhaes de Oliveira[16], Neus Sanjuan[17], and Vinicius Sassine[18]


[1] University of Freiburg

[2] European Forest Institute

[3] University of Freiburg

[4] University of Freiburg

[5] European Forest Institute

[6] University of Dschang

[7] Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA)

[8] European Forest Institute

[9] European Forest Institute

[10] University of Dschang

[11] University of Dschang

[12] University of Dschang

[13] International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ)

[14] The Economist

[15] Pulitzer Center

[16] University of Bonn

[17] Universitat Politècnica de València

[18] Folha de S.Paulo

The EUDR may have little impact on reducing deforestation 

What’s on your plate and in your house might be quietly clearing forests in the Amazon and the Congo Basin. The production of internationally traded agricultural and forest commodities is responsible for more than half of the global loss of forests and natural vegetation every year. To help reduce deforestation associated with the import of these products into the EU, the European Parliament passed the EU Deforestation Regulation on deforestation-free products (EUDR) in 2022. Set to take full effect by the end of 2025, the EUDR obliges all importers of soy, palm oil, coffee, cocoa, beef, forest products, and rubber – known as forest risk commodities – to provide proof that the production was legal according to national legislation in the producer country and not associated with any deforestation. However, new research based on expert assessments has raised doubts about whether the EUDR can effectively reduce or even slow down global forest loss:

First, in many producer countries, such as Brazil and Cameroon, the EU holds a relatively small market share of forest risk commodities. This means the vast areas heavily impacted by commodity production may not be addressed by the EUDR at all. At the same time, importers will then often be able to meet EU demand by buying from producers who do not engage in deforestation or from regions with a low deforestation risk, either within the same country or in other producer countries. Unless other major importing regions, such as China and the US, adopt similar policies, the EUDR alone would be likely to have little to no impact on reducing forest loss.

Second, the EUDR could weaken political support for existing domestic policies in producer countries that have effectively reduced deforestation caused by forest-risk commodity production. This has been observed, for example, in the case of Brazil’s Amazon Soy Moratorium, which has lost crucial political backing from certain national agro-industry and state-level administrations. Inconsistencies between specific rules of the EUDR and the Moratorium provided opponents with new arguments to renegotiate the existing set of rules. 

Third, the EUDR imposes additional reporting obligations on many actors along forest risk commodity value chains, including those with limited resources like small landowners. The associated costs could disproportionately hurt small producers, processing companies, and logistics providers.

EU lawmakers must closely monitor whether the EUDR will make any tangible contribution to reducing the loss of tropical forests. Otherwise, companies can hide the deforestation footprint by simply rerouting imports through another country or region before they reach the EU. At the same time, researchers and policymakers must find more affordable and viable ways to reduce the negative environmental impacts of trade in agricultural and forest commodities, without harming vulnerable businesses in the producing countries. This could, for example, involve taxes on deforestation-linked commodities. The funds raised through the tax in the EU could be reinvested in producer countries to help protect and restore natural ecosystems and biodiversity. 

Authors: Jan Börner[1]

Reviewers (alphabetical): Scilla Alecci[2], Laila Berning[3], Mathias Cramm[4], Alok Jha[5], Madeleine Ngeunga[6], Vinicius Sassine[7], and Rina Tsubaki[8]

References:


[1] University of Bonn

[2] International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ)

[3] University of Freiburg

[4] European Forest Institute

[5] The Economist

[6] Pulitzer Center

[7] Folha de S.Paulo

[8] European Forest Institute

Path to Zero Deforestation? Mitigating Cattle-Driven Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Cattle-driven deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon accounts for over 70% of forest loss. To curb this, we must enhance supply chain transparency, enforce zero-deforestation commitments, and support farmers in sustainable practices. The path to zero deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon starts with accountability. Expanding the scope of zero-deforestation commitments, transparent supply chains, and strengthening farmer capacity are key to stopping cattle-driven forest loss.

Read the policy brief.

Prof. Börner gave a talk on forest conservation under the EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products at FONEI

On September 24th, Jan Börner (University of Bonn) gave an invited talk on “Challenges and Opportunities for forest conservation under the EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products” at the Plenary of the German Stakeholder Platform for Protein-based Feed (FONEI) in Berlin. FONEI brings together representatives from civil society, government, and industry around topics such as alternative protein sources and deforestation-free animal feed production. The presentation was informed, among others, by recent CLEVER research, such as “The EU regulation on deforestation-free products at odds with forest conservation in Brazil?” A commentary.

Image provided by Prof. Jan Börner.

Feature image by Casa.da.Photo from AdobeStock.

Policy Brief on the EUDR and Brazil’s forest conservation

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to reduce the adverse impacts of EU imports on global forests, climate change, and biodiversity as of December 31, 2024. It mandates due diligence for products containing forest-risk commodities such as beef, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, and wood to ensure they do not come from recently deforested areas.

Although this is celebrated as groundbreaking, there are concerns about the high costs of compliance for all market participants, especially small producers. Using Brazil as an example, the policy brief “The EU Regulation on Deforestation-free products at odds with forest conservation in Brazil? A commentary” discusses plausible scenarios in which the EUDR could also lead to unintended and undesirable impacts on forests.

The commentary was written by Jan Börner, Laila Berning, Daniel Braun, Thomas Dietz, Johen Dürr, Fernanda Martinelli, Paulo Mortara-Batistic, Felipe Nunes, Gustavo Magalhaes Oliveira, Andrea Pacheco, Britaldo Soares-Filho, Metodi Sotirov, Daniel Vargas and Rafaella Ziegert for the Agricultural Policy Dialogue Brazil-Germany (APD).

Feature image by Xico/AdobeStock.

New study on the unintended effects of the EU’s Regulation on Deforestation-free products

In the scientific publication Blind spots in the EU’s Regulation on Deforestation-free products, CLEVER researchers express concern that the European Union’s Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) may have unintended consequences when it clashes with existing national policies and value-chain governance mechanisms in trading partners. Using the example of Brazil, they illustrate and discuss the potential consequences of the considerable gap between the formal cut-off dates of the EUDR and the Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM). Read the full article.

Published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution by Gustavo M. Oliveira, Rafaella F. Ziegert, Andrea Pacheco, Laila Berning, Metodi Sotirov, Jochen Dürr, Daniel Braun, Felipe S. M. Nunes, Britaldo S. Soares-Filho and Jan Börner, on 3 July 2024.

Oliveira, G.M., Ziegert, R.F., Pacheco, A. et al. Blind spots in the EU’s Regulation on Deforestation-free products. Nat Ecol Evol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02465-x