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Scientific publications

Authors

Ubirajara OliveiraBritaldo Soares-FilhoFelipe Nunes

Abstract

Sampling bias and gaps have a direct influence on the perceived patterns of biodiversity, hence limiting our ability to make well-informed decisions about biodiversity conservation. Yet most methods either disregard or underestimate the effects of sampling bias and gaps in modelling biodiversity patterns. Our objective is to test the sensitivity of commonly used methods for modelling biodiversity dimensions (richness, endemism, and beta diversity) to sampling bias and collection gaps, and as a way to mitigate those effects we introduce a novel approach that employs the sampling effort to minimize the effects of collection bias and gaps in biodiversity models.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14851

Authors

Yannic Damm, Elías Cisneros, Jan Börner

Abstract

Global commodity supply chains contribute significantly to environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions. Improving supply chain transparency can create public awareness and encourage relevant actors to improve their ecological footprint. We exploit Brazil’s Priority List policy for the Amazon region, a public disclosure mechanism introduced in 2008 that effectively reduced deforestation rates, to study how land users and commodity traders respond to the corresponding reputational risk exposure. Specifically, we combine remotely sensed land use data with spatio-temporally disaggregated soy trade statistics covering 15 years and 770 municipalities to measure the effect of priority listing on land-use change, sourcing patterns, and trade destinations. Using the Generalized Synthetic Control method, we find that priority listing led to a sizeable drop in deforestation and a corresponding reduction in pasture expansion. At the same time, soy expansion increased significantly, but instead of expanding into natural forests, it mostly replaced existing pastures and other cropland. The additional soy production was exported predominantly to China, whereas exports to the EU stagnated.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103102

Authors

Laila Berning, Metodi Sotirov

Abstract

This paper analyses the belief- and interest-driven coalitional politics of the new European Union Regulation on deforestation-free products (EUDR) by applying the Advocacy Coalition Framework and Baptist & Bootlegger Theory. Our results first show how two PRO-Regulation Coalitions advocated for new European Union (EU) trade rules: key members of a Sustainable Development Coalition and an Environmental Coalition include key sustainability- and environmentally-oriented EU institutions, import-dependent EU Member States, non-governmental organisations, civil society groups, and some food and forest certifiers. Second, a PRO-EUDR Business Coalition – mainly composed of multinational business actors such as consumer goods companies and retailers, import-dependent European companies, some EU domestic producers from the agricultural sector, and their respective associations – joined the PRO-Coalitions in a strategic cross-coalitional PRO-Regulation Alliance to pursue business-oriented pro-regulatory interests. Third, the building of this Alliance facilitated political momentum for the EUDR’s agenda-setting, drafting and adoption despite opposition from a weaker CONTRA-Regulation Coalition of status-quo-oriented policy advocates among some EU institutions, forest-rich EU Member States, agricultural certifiers, tropical producer country governmental authorities, as well as European and non-EU companies and their associations from the forest, agricultural and food sectors. Fourth, the EUDR’s final legislative text is a compromise solution, institutionalising different core beliefs and interests of pro- and contra-regulatory state and non-state actors. Pro-change actors were more powerful in institutionalising their beliefs and interests.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103102

Authors

Laila BerningMetodi Sotirov

Abstract

The European Union (EU) has recently introduced the Deforestation Regulation to close regulatory gaps in the sustainability and legality of global forest and agricultural commodity supply chains. We analyze this regulatory policy change by drawing on accountability scholarship and institutionalist theories of regulation. Our results show that the Regulation aims to enhance corporate accountability mechanisms through mostly state-based hard regulation of commodity supply chains, reducing the role of market incentives and private regulation. This policy change is found to be the result of strategic policy-oriented learning from perceived accountability failures of existing soft market-based instruments, voluntary trade agreements, and experience with market-correcting EU timber legality trade rules in a politically favorable context. The institutionalization of new forest-risk commodity supply chain accountability norms in new EU trade rules would, by design, harden foreign corporate accountability for negative socio-environmental externalities. However, the de-facto hardening will depend on the final regulatory design, acceptance, compliance, implementation, enforcement improvements, and avoidance of leakage effects.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103102

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